Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters

Men's preference for Obama was 3% greater than women's preference for Clinton. However, women had 16% more voting power than men which increases Clinton's popularity. White voters (men and women) preferred Clinton. White women preferred Clinton by 26%! The MSM constantly says 90-95% of Black voters prefer Obama but when I calculated the data from primaries I found that Black women and men voted for Obama 82% and 87% respectively. Among Hispanics, Clinton is much more popular than Obama leading him by 35% among women and 17% among men.

Based upon accounts I have heard, it seems Asian and Jewish voters overwhelmingly prefer Clinton. Apparently Blacks are the only major ethnic/racial demographic that prefers Obama. There is some evidence that Obama's Black heritage is a reason for his popularity among Blacks. For example, I read accounts in the media in which Black people have stated that Obama's race is the main reason they are voting for him. And also more than 80% of Blacks consistently vote for Obama regardless of region, culture and other factors. So, if Obama had not run for president, then it is likely that Clinton would have won the nomination a long time ago since Blacks used to overwhelmingly favor her perhaps because the Clintons greatly improved the quality of living for Blacks during the 90's.

But the main story now is that non-Black voters overwhelmingly favor Clinton and that increases her chances of winning the general election because the general election includes a much larger percentage of non-Black voters than the Democratic nomination elections. Since Clinton has consistently won an overwhelming majority of Hispanic and White voter support and has a huge lead in swing states, it is clear she is the strongest general election candidate.

Data from Democratic state primary exit *polls:

*DC was not included because there was no exit poll data.

ALL VOTERS
Women: 58%
Men: 42%
16% more women voters

WOMEN
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 45%
Clinton leads by 6%

MEN
Clinton: 43%
Obama: 52%
Obama leads by 9%

WHITE WOMEN
Clinton: 60%
Obama: 34%
Clintons leads by 26%

WHITE MEN
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 45%
Clinton leads by 4%

BLACK WOMEN
Clinton: 16%
Obama: 82%
Obama leads by 66%

BLACK MEN
Clinton: 12%
Obama: 87%
Obama leads by 75%

HISPANIC WOMEN
Clinton: 67%
Obama: 32%
Clinton leads by 35%

HISPANIC MEN
Clinton: 57%
Obama: 40%
Clinton leads by 17%

Source: CNN.com
*click on State tab for menu of all states
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#val=AR



Display:


I would like to see her run. (2.00 / 4)

She would win...

I don't think Obama will win.

But look at the bright side. We will have satisfied our obligation to let the presumptive nominee presume us into defeat.


Health Care: WHY do we pay MORE and GET LESS?
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/con tent/full/hlthaff.28.1.w1/DC1
by architek on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:03:38 PM EST

Obama might win. (2.00 / 3)

Assuming he really wants to.

I hope that this doesnt happen but there is I suppose the possibility that by November, the economy might be so screwed up that neither would actually want to be President.

So that is clearly another area where Hillary has an advantage. Of the three, now two candidates, she was the only one who clearly had the STAMINA to get us out of this mess. Maybe that will change in the coming months.

Obama needs to get out there and TALK TO US AS ADULTS.


Health Care: WHY do we pay MORE and GET LESS?
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/con tent/full/hlthaff.28.1.w1/DC1
by architek on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (2.00 / 1)

if you check the data for 2000, you'll see that Asians and Hispanics margins for voting Democrat were historically low. Asians and Hispanics almost went 50-50 (more like 55-45 for dems) while previous Democratic candidates enjoyed heftier margins like close to 70-30.

Because of their performace in 2000, we saw the trend of Asians and Hispanics bring viewed as swing voters; but because of the economic downturn we are facing, Hispanics and asians will most likely turn to the Democratic Party for solutions.

[as for diversity, look to the fact she recieved the catholic vote and the gay vote; two demographics with vast differences.]


by alyssa chaos on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:06:04 PM EST

did you miss today's news cycle perchance? (2.00 / 8)


"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that word I reach for my feather Boa!" -- Allen Ginsberg
by canadian gal on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:06:25 PM EST

Was there a hurricane? (2.00 / 1)

Oh I know - another tiger escaped from a zoo! ;-)


by catfish2 on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Was there a hurricane? (none / 0)

Um...I think it was a bear. :D


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:53:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: did you miss today's news cycle perchance? (2.00 / 1)

Thank You for making me feel like I hadn't completely wasted my time reading this diary,CG. I kept looking at the date to see if there was some chronological glitch occurring.  I've been entering patient data for hours now and I thought tomorrow had happened yesterday or something.


by Jeter on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 02:40:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually, Obama has a huge lead with Latinos now (2.00 / 1)

And I suggest you listen to what Senator Clinton said today, and stop attacking our Democratic nominee.


by slinkerwink on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:11:22 PM EST

Re: Actually, Obama (2.00 / 1)

I hardly think this was an attack;

I think that Sen Obama will do well with Hispanics, beyond the fact that the Hispanic-Democrat allegiance has grown stronger over failed Bush policies that have effected Hispanics more than non-Hispanics as well as the bad sentiments and ill wishes the stance toward illegal immigration has had on them.

it has hurt Hispanics in this country. The republicans have harbored prejudices for their own political benefit, and I think most Hispanics are starting to feel the ramifications whether it be the raised eye brows when you say your last name or the ugly looks you get just based on appearances.

[http://pewhispanic.org/]


by alyssa chaos on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:20:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it does show that Hispanics are unifying around (none / 0)

Obama, and he got a huge bump today in the gallup/rasmussen polls, with an 80% of Democrats with him now.


by slinkerwink on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:24:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it does show that Hispanics are unifying (2.00 / 1)

honestly what choice do they have?


by alyssa chaos on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey, I was going to say that! (2.00 / 1)

the fact that 20% of Democrats STILL wont kowtow to the 'presumptive' nominee tells us that FOR SOME REASON they still are hoping against hope that Hillary will pull an upset victory, which I suppose is a pretty long shot now, huh?

I think the reason is healthcare. They are probably that EXACT SAME 20% that Obama clearly can't cover just like Jim Cooper before him in 1994

"Too expensive"

So, where is the 'insurance' (i.e. peace of mind) in insurance that does not insure!?

Easy, IT GETS PEOPLE SPENDING AGAIN....


Health Care: WHY do we pay MORE and GET LESS?
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/con tent/full/hlthaff.28.1.w1/DC1
by architek on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:37:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey, I was going to say that! (none / 0)

Did I miss something? I've been off and on. Did Obama go back on what seemed to be floating around a few days ago? About using HIllary's healthcare plan or one very similar? I'm thinking that would have had to be a precondition for the support of both her and Edwards.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 04:40:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey, I was going to say that! (none / 0)

It's not 20% of Dems - more like 12%.

And if you don't compare to other situations where a nominee just wrapped up the nomination, that number is pretty meaningless.

Of course, if Senator Clinton had dropped out when it was no longer possible for her to win a majority of pledged delegates, we would have had more time to unite.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:02:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is great!!! (2.00 / 1)

Obama is so great! He is just so cool! Hooray for Obama!!!!!!

:D :D :D


by soyousay on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 11:53:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama is great!!! (2.00 / 3)

that's better. now get an obama tatoo.


by campskunk on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama is great!!! (1.00 / 2)

Thanks but I don't need a tattoo, I have something better...I have a freakin brown nose and you know what? It stinks like hell! Bah ha ha ha! :D


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:23:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We are SO SMART! (2.00 / 2)

Smart we are, Obama hooray.

Hooray for us!

:D :D :D

Oh so smart...


Health Care: WHY do we pay MORE and GET LESS?
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/con tent/full/hlthaff.28.1.w1/DC1
by architek on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:39:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

See.... (2.00 / 1)

"yes YOU can!


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes we can? (none / 0)

?


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 01:19:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama is great!!! (2.00 / 1)

I got a cloak and key chain when I signed up for the cult meetings.  The cloak is pretty stylin' if I do say so myself.


by Xris on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:24:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a lot better than the (2.00 / 1)

"McCain--Bush's Third Term" jackets the McCain campaign is selling.


by slinkerwink on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:26:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a lot better than the (none / 0)

mojo for you my friend


by Xris on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:28:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I bet you do! :D (none / 0)

Does it have a big fat "O" on it?


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:33:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I bet you do! :D (none / 0)

Of course it does, we wouldn't be very culty if it didn't.


by Xris on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:34:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (none / 0)

You should actually read this article that came out today about how well Obama is doing with Latinos.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/ politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,1761 51.story

If you can bring yourself to do it you should check out this diary from Daily Kos that talks about past voter samples and what they could mean for the O Man.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6 /7/02440/50576/535/531358


by Xris on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:27:31 AM EST

Thats okay... (2.00 / 1)

I believe you!

Only 20% of [insert group here] support Hillary now!

right?

For some reason...

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_pri nt/SB119681696156513818.html

"On the campaign trail, Mrs. Clinton has attacked Mr. Obama for his plan, saying it betrays the Democratic principle of universal coverage. Her campaign has demanded that he take down an advertisement that claims his plan "covers everyone."

Mr. Obama has replied that her attacks are more about politics than substance; they didn't come, he noted, until she lost ground in the polls. But his advisers don't dispute her central charge. Rather, they claim Mrs. Clinton's plan would also leave millions without coverage.

Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee argues that if Mrs. Clinton's health plan is enacted, she will have to waive the mandate for millions of people. That is because, he says, there isn't enough money for subsidies to make health insurance affordable enough for people to buy it.

"You can't put in a mandate until health care is affordable," he says. He predicted that a Hillary Clinton administration would wind up exempting 20% of the uninsured, or about 10 million people. That is the percentage of uninsured adults who were exempted in Massachusetts, the only state to try an individual mandate.

That view may not be true. Ken Thorpe, a health-policy expert at Emory University who has advised all three major Democrats, said he ran cost estimates for the Clinton plan at the Clinton campaign's request, and found there should be enough money to make insurance affordable for all. He said he ran three scenarios with varying levels of subsidies -- from $100 billion a year to $120 billion a year. The campaign chose one in the middle: $110 billion.

If it turns out that isn't enough money to make health premiums affordable, Mrs. Clinton would have to spend more on subsidies, one of her health-care advisers said.

But, the adviser said, it is wrong to assume that 20% of Americans will be exempted. It is impossible to say for certain, because the campaign has not explained how large the subsidies will be or who will qualify for them.

The Obama plan does some other things to get people insurance. It allows adults up to age 25 to stay on their parents' insurance even if they aren't in school. And it attempts to lower the cost of insurance overall through a reinsurance plan, whereby the federal government would cover some expenses of some of the most costly patients.

Outside experts note that the Clinton and Obama plans propose spending about the same amount of money, while Mr. Obama uses some of his to pay for the reinsurance plan -- an initiative that could cost tens of billions of dollars. That should help lower premiums across the board, but it means there would be less available for direct subsidies."

also

http://backissues.cjrarchives.org/year/9 4/2/clinton.asp

"But what was missing from the coverage of Cooper's bill was solid analysis of how the bill would affect ordinary people -- analysis the polls say the public wants. As of late December CJR found no stories that explained how the plan would affect those Americans who are not insured and who still might not be if Cooper's plan becomes law. There was not even agreement among news stories on the number of people the plan would leave without insurance. The Palm BeachPost reported that Cooper "predicted [his plan] would provide insurance to nearly as many of the 37 million uninsured Americans as Clinton's plan." (Clinton's plan covers 100 percent of the uninsured.) The Washington Post quoted Cooper as saying his plan would cover "60 percent of the uninsured" (leaving 40 percent uncovered), while the Los Angeles Times noted that, "by Cooper's own estimate, the bill would not cover about one-fifth (or 20 percent) of those currently lacking health insurance."

No one pinned Cooper down on the numbers or interpreted them through the pocketbooks of families who would be affected. The bill calls for subsidies to help some families buy insurance, but what would happen if a family was too rich for the subsidies but too poor to buy coverage on its own? How would the family get insurance? Plenty of stories, however, quoted Cooper's solution: come back in a few years and pass another law to help these people out.

Where were the stories that examined whether the Cooper plan would actually reduce costs of the health care system? Health care purchasing cooperatives are the main instrument of cost containment, but in Cooper's plan only employers with fewer than 100 workers are required to obtain coverage through them, if they want to continue deducting the cost of health insurance for their workers. This arrangement would leave all other employers free to operate outside the mechanism for curtailing costs and to continue the status quo, if they wished. The Congressional Budget Office found that the earlier version of Cooper's bill would actually increase costs of the health care system, at least initially, a point reported by The New York times and The Washington Post in February 1993, but ignored in the latest wave of Cooper promotional pieces."


Health Care: WHY do we pay MORE and GET LESS?
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/con tent/full/hlthaff.28.1.w1/DC1
by architek on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:46:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thats okay... (2.00 / 1)

In all seriousness if you want to actually debate healthcare with me start up a diary and I will gladly talk.  I have nothing to do tonight anyways:)


by Xris on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:47:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Theories on her support (2.00 / 1)

Geraldo Rivera reported from Puerto Rico and said he thought that hispanics are gregarious and ... I forget the phrase he used but they touch you when they talk. Anyway he said Obama is a little more cool, aloof and ivory tower and that was his theory as to why Clinton won there. Also a friend volunteered there and said the media was so much more issues-focused and fair. Obama played ads there but they didn't connect.


by catfish2 on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:44:54 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (2.00 / 1)

I just wish Obama supporters would just stop acting up.


McCain = Iraq. John McCain = overturn Roe.
by PantsB on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 12:46:09 AM EST

This is pointless if you don't include age (2.00 / 0)

The generation gap in this election was immense, and should be included in any discussion of why this election played out the way it did.  Clinton got the older voters, Obama got the young 'uns, and the closer one gets to the margins the stronger this support becomes.  

For this reason don't even think it makes sense to talk about such broad categories as the "white male vote" (because not only within this grouping was there a huge variation but one can account for it by citing three variables--age, income, and education, and that was true for all of these categories).  Still, age predominated.

 


by IncognitoErgoSum on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 01:22:46 AM EST

Re: This is pointless if you don't include age (2.00 / 0)

I thought it was particularly interesting the geography that played into it. I mean how certain areas were divided up. As well as how the minorities split up, because Obama is a minority himself, it seemed a note of interest.


by alyssa chaos on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 01:31:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (none / 0)

Can someone please explain to me exactly how the "new map" works and how its going to work with the old electoral map? I heard it had something to do with purple states and the youth of America.


by soyousay on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 01:57:22 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (none / 0)

There are long analytical articles all over the place on that. For example, see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/06/07/AR2008060702222. html?hpid=topnews


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 11:03:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton's Diverse Supporters (none / 0)

I love your diaries.


by Jeter on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 02:45:38 AM EST

How did this make the rec list? nt (none / 0)


by shalca on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 02:52:36 AM EST

Re: How did this make the rec list? nt (none / 0)

just saw that,

[its a conspiracy]


by alyssa chaos on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 02:56:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you said it....... (none / 0)

How many times have the rational people on this site asked themselves that very question on a daily basis the last few months?


by emptythreatsfarm on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 08:16:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You have forgotten one thing (2.00 / 1)

"it is clear she is the strongest general election candidate."

Hillary Clinton will be ineligible to appear on the ballot in a significant number of states.  As the loser of a primary race, many states prohibit her from being on the ballot.  Deadlines are coming and expiring for independent access to the ballot.

Not being on the ballot will very quickly counteract all these supposed demographic trends.  


McCain = Iraq. John McCain = overturn Roe.
by PantsB on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 10:12:30 AM EST

Blacks as you call them supported Sen. Clinton (none / 0)

before a few unfortunate incidents and historically vote for White candidates over African-American candidates.


The plural of anecdote is not data.
by LiberalDebunker on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 10:23:57 AM EST

BTW, is this from a few months ago? (none / 0)

Clinton's campaign is over.


The plural of anecdote is not data.
by LiberalDebunker on Sun Jun 08, 2008 at 10:25:30 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.